USD/JPY rises to 37y high of 160.87 overnight. Next resistance is at 161.20, OCBC analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Markets eye intervention

“USDJPY rose to 37y high of 160.87 overnight. Higher UST yields was the latest trigger to push USD/JPY higher, in line with our caution that USDJPY should continue to mount a challenge above 160. We also expect the rise past 2024 high to test the resolve of Japanese authorities.”

“That said, intervention is at best an option to slow the pace of depreciation and not a tool to reverse the trend. For USDJPY to turn lower, that would require the USD to turn/Fed to cut or for BoJ to signal an intent to normalise urgently. None of the above appears to be taking place, so the path of least resistance for USD/JPY may still be to the upside.”

“Pair was last at 160.41. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact though RSI shows signs of turning lower from near overbought conditions. Next resistance at 161.20 (138.2% fibo projection of 2023 low to 2023), 164 levels. Support at 157.70 (21 DMA), 156.60 (50 DMA).”

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