This week I will begin with my monthly and weekly Forex forecast of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of my forecast is based upon my research of the past 20 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:

  • Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past 6 months.
  • Trading against very strong weekly counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week.
  • Carry Trade: Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates.

Let us look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:

Trading Support and Resistance – EUR/USD. GBP/USD

Monthly Forecast November 2023

For the month of November, I make no forecast, as the US Dollar is making a deep counter-trend retracement.

For the month of October, I forecasted that the USD/JPY currency pair would gain in value.

The final result of this forecast was as follows:

Weekly Forecast 5th November 2023

Last week, I gave no weekly forecast, as there were no strong counter-trend price movements.

This week, I forecast that the NZD/USD and AUD/USD currency pairs will fall in value.

Directional volatility in the Forex market increased last week with 59% of the most important currency pairs fluctuating over the week by more than 1%. Volatility is likely to decrease over the coming week, due mostly to the much lighter schedule of high-impact economic data releases, and if the war in the Middle East widens, it will extend even further.

Last week was dominated by relative strength in the New Zealand Dollar, and relative weakness in the US Dollar.

You can trade my forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.

Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs

I teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that can be monitored on the more popular currency pairs this week.

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