By Areena Fx- Gold stabilizes near 200-SMA following bearish breakout.
- Technical signals still weak; resistance tested near 3,310.
Gold took a downturn after meeting the resistance line drawn from its all-time high of 3,499, raising concerns that a bearish wave similar to the one seen from May 5–15 could be underway.
With President Trump once again postponing his tariff threats against the EU, and the US dollar regaining some ground, the precious metal staged a bearish channel breakdown and closed below the protective 20-period simple moving average (SMA) on the four-hour chart.
The 200-period SMA has been curbing selling forces around the 3,285 region over the past couple of hours. However, whether the bulls will be able to establish a strong foothold there remains to be seen, as the RSI and MACD are showing no meaningful progress, unable to follow the stochastic oscillator higher. Friday’s core PCE inflation figures might be the next source of volatility.
If the support at 3,285 fails, the price could find footing near the 3,265 area, which overlaps with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April–May decline. The 3,245 level could also offer support, as it did back in April. If these levels do not hold, the price could slide toward the neckline of the completed inverted head-and-shoulders pattern at 3,212. A break below this neckline may extinguish any hopes for a rebound, potentially driving the price down to the 3,175 support zone.
On the upside, the 50% Fibonacci level at 3,310 has been a hurdle so far today. If the bulls manage to overcome that barrier, they would next need to reclaim the 20-period SMA at 3,330, and then pierce through the crucial resistance trendline at 3,350 to restore buying confidence. Even higher, resistance could emerge near the 3,385 level before a potential return to the 3,420 territory.
In summary, although gold has found a technically favorable support area for a potential bullish phase, it remains vulnerable according to current technical indicators, with sellers eyeing a break below 3,285 to stage the next leg down.