By Areena Fx
The single European currency is held between 1,13 -1,14 levels as investors continue to avoid big bets.
In general, the market picture does not show significant differences with geopolitical events remaining high on the agenda and although the dust has settled, the issue of tariffs monopolizes interest.
The US dollar, apart from some very good correction and temporary recovery below the 1,13 level, is struggling to remain in the spotlight as concerns about President Trump’s policies continue to be intense.
As efforts to de-escalate the looming trade war continue with several negotiations underway between the United States and key trading partners, some calm has returned to international financial markets.
Concerns about US debt securities, although they have eased, have not gone off the agenda with the 10y bond yield still hovering near the 4,3 level.
On today’s agenda, in addition to Fed meeting, which is certainly monopolizing interest, retail sales in the eurozone also stand out.
The margin for surprises is very small, with all bets in favor of keeping key interest rates at the same levels and any other decision would shock the markets.
I have not changes in my mind and I prefer to remain on hold. Still in play is a probability on the scenario that the consolidation behavior will continue and the exchange rate will maintained for the foreseeable future between 1.11 – 1.16 levels.