By Areena FxUSD: Dec ’25 is Down at 97.490.
Energies: Nov ’25 Crude is Down at 63.02.
Financials: The Dec ’25 30 Year T-Bond is Lower by 4 ticks and trading at 116.23.
Indices: The Sep ’25 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 44 ticks Lower and trading at 6702.50.
Gold: The Dec’25 Gold contract is trading Down at 3837.40.
Initial conclusion
This is not a correlated market. The USD is Down and Crude is Down which is not normal, and the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Lower. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower and Crude is trading Lower which is not correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Down. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don’t have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Asia traded Mixed. All of Europe is trading Mixed as well.
Possible challenges to traders
- FOMC Member Collins Speaks at 9 AM EST. Major.
- HPI m/m is out at 9 AM EST. Major.
- S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y is out at 9 AM EST. Major.
- Chicago PMI is out at 9:45 AM EST. Major.
- JOLTS Job Openings is out at 10 AM EST. Major.
- CB Consumer Confidence is out at 10 AM EST. Major.
- FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks at 1:30 PM EST. Major.
Traders, please note that we’ve changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT). They work exactly the same.
We’ve elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract. The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it’s likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.
Yesterday the ZT dived Lower at around 8 AM EST with multiple eco news items pending. The Dow climbed Higher at the same time. Look at the charts below and you’ll see a pattern for both assets. The Dow climbed Higher at around 8 AM EST and the ZT dropped Lower at around the same time. These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I’ve changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better. This represented a Short opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about a dozen ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $6.25. Please note: the front month for ZT is now Dec ’25 and the Dow is now Dec ’25. I’ve changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.
Charts courtesy of BarCharts
ZT -Sep 25 – 9/29/25
Dow – Sep 2025- 9/29/25
Bias
Yesterday we suggested an Upside Day, and the markets didn’t disappoint. The Dow closed Higher by 69 points and the other indices gained ground as well. Today we aren’t dealing with a correlated market and our bias is Neutral or Mixed.
Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Commentary
It appears as though a government shutdown is imminent unless something happens between now and 12 midnight. The GOP will not compromise with the Dems and the Dems won’t back down on the Healthcare costs that will go up for millions of Americans. Trump has threatened to layoff thousands of government workers if a shutdown occurs. Want to learn Market Correlation and determine market direction hours before the Opening Bell?