By Areena FxWhat’s on the Radar Today:
In the eurozone, keep an eye on the final inflation data for February. This data gives insights into the underlying inflation measures tracked by the ECB and sheds light on the drivers behind the strong core inflation seen in February.
The Bank of Japan wrapped up its two-day policy meeting overnight, with analysts split in their expectations. The recent robust wage data from the “spring wage offensive” provided crucial information for the BoJ’s decision-making process. However, uncertainties remain regarding the impact on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Given the ongoing inflation pressure in the US and the delayed rate cuts by the Fed, a hawkish stance from the BoJ is anticipated. The possibility of a rate hike and the abandonment of yield curve control is deemed more likely in April.
In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold a monetary policy meeting early tomorrow morning. No changes to monetary policy are expected, aligning with market consensus.
What to Look Forward to This Week:
Major central bank decisions will dominate the rest of the week. On Wednesday, the FOMC is expected to maintain the status quo. We will see Norges Bank (NB), Bank of England (BoE), and SNB decisions on Thursday. While NB and BoE will likely keep policies unchanged, the SNB may deliver a 25 basis point cut. PMI data for various countries includes the UK, the US, and the eurozone.
Econom will be released on Thursday. Market Highlights:
In China, industrial production (IP) exceeded expectations overnight, showing growth from December to Jan/Feb. Retail sales are aligned with expectations, and favorable housing data indicates progress in the housing market due to recent stimulus measures. Financial markets are showing optimism as Chinese stocks rally and copper prices surge.
What Happened on Friday and Over the Weekend:
In the US, March’s University of Michigan flash consumer sentiment indicator remained unchanged. Modest upticks in short-term inflation expectations were observed, but overall inflation expectations remained modest. February industrial production slightly surpassed consensus.
Rengo released its first wage tally in Japan, revealing a 5.28% wage increase for workers at significant firms. However, more data is needed to assess the impact on the SME segment.
In Russia, President Putin won a new six-year term in the presidential election.
Equities:
Global equities were lower on Friday and for the week. Bond markets saw higher yields driven by inflation concerns, but equities were relatively resilient. Energy and materials sectors performed well amid rising inflationary pressures.
Fixed Income:
European bonds traded in a tight range on Friday, with 10-year German yields ending at 2.44%. Bund asset swap spreads remained stable, with expectations of further tightening soon.
FX:
The upcoming week will likely see FX markets driven by relative monetary policy, with major central bank decisions looming. Expectations for the BoJ meeting are split, while the SNB may cut rates on Thursday. The Fed’s stance on rising US interest rates will influence the USD.