The EUR/GBP pair is holding steady above 0.8300 as traders await Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures from both the Eurozone and the UK.


Key Drivers

ECB and Lagarde’s Remarks

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the central bank remains prepared to cut rates further if disinflation continues on track.
  • Lagarde also noted a shift in policy stance, suggesting that the prior focus on maintaining “sufficiently restrictive” interest rates is no longer necessary.
  • ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann emphasized that the primary goal of the ECB is price stability, not economic growth, signaling a cautious approach to rate cuts.

UK and BoE Stance

  • The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to adopt a gradual and cautious approach to easing monetary policy.
  • BoE Governor Andrew Bailey suggested four potential rate cuts in 2025, which could limit Sterling’s upside and support the EUR/GBP cross.
  • Expectations for higher inflation in the UK, driven by increased government spending, are likely to maintain pressure on the BoE to keep rates high for longer.

Eurozone Political and Economic Developments

  • The appointment of François Bayrou as France’s Prime Minister by President Emmanuel Macron raised hopes for political stability in the Eurozone, boosting investor sentiment toward the Euro.
  • Meanwhile, ongoing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties in the region continue to weigh on the Euro’s performance.

Market Outlook and PMI Data

  • EUR/GBP Technicals: The pair has been consolidating around 0.8320, moving sideways after two consecutive days of gains.
  • PMI Figures: The focus will be on PMI data from both the Eurozone and the UK, offering insights into manufacturing and services sector activity.
  • Traders are closely monitoring these figures to gauge the health of both economies, which could influence further direction in the EUR/GBP cross.

Potential Catalysts

  • Any stronger-than-expected data from the UK could boost the Pound, potentially limiting upside for EUR/GBP.
  • Conversely, weaker PMI readings from the Eurozone may support further gains for the Euro.

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