By Areena Fx- Australian Dollar struggles after the release of mixed China’s NBS Purchasing Managers’ Index data.
- China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0, while the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI advanced to 50.1 in October.
- The US Dollar maintains its position amid uncertainty surrounding the Fed policy outlook.
AUD/USD remains subdued for the third successive session, trading around 0.6550 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair moves little following the release of China’s NBS Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. It is important to note that any shift in China’s economic conditions could also affect the Australian dollar (AUD), given the close trade ties between China and Australia.
China’s NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index dropped sharply to 49.0 in October, following 49.8 recorded in September. The reading came in above the expected 49.6 figure in the reported month. Meanwhile, the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose slightly to 50.1 against the previous and the market consensus of 50.0 readings.
The AUD/USD pair faced challenges as the Australian Dollar (AUD) struggled amid market sentiment that remained subdued following the meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, which offered few positive surprises. President Trump announced that tariffs on China would be reduced to 47% from the current 57% and confirmed that the rare earth dispute had been resolved, removing restrictions on China’s rare earth exports. However, Trump acknowledged that not all matters were addressed during the talks.
US Dollar maintains position due to Fed rate cut doubts
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is remaining steady and trading around 99.50 at the time of writing. The Greenback moves little as improving Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets weaken the impact of the hawkish comments from the Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
- The CME FedWatch Tool suggests markets are now pricing in a 71% probability of a Fed rate cut in December, up from 66% the previous day. This, however, marks a decline from nearly 91% before the hawkish comments from the Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
- Fed Chair Powell cautioned during the post-meeting press conference that policymakers may need to take a wait-and-see approach until official data reporting resumes. Powell also added that another rate cut in December is far from certain, emphasizing that the outlook remains uncertain. He also noted that the central bank is struggling to balance its dual mandate of controlling inflation and supporting employment due to limited data availability amid the ongoing US government shutdown.
- The US Fed delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday, lowering its benchmark rate to a range of 3.75%–4.0% in a 10–2 vote. The decision was not unanimous, as Fed Governor Stephen Miran supported a larger 50-basis-point cut, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid voted to keep rates unchanged.
- The US Dollar also gained ground after the Fed acknowledged it would continue to ease back on Quantitative Easing (QE) practices, with the process of drawing down the Fed’s mortgage-backed asset balance sheet into long-term Treasuries by December 1.
- The RBA Trimmed Mean CPI for Q3 rose 1.0% and 3.0% on a quarterly and annual basis, respectively. Markets estimated an increase of 0.8% QoQ and 2.7% YoY in the quarter to September. The monthly Consumer Price Index jumped by 3.5% YoY in August, compared to the previous reading of a 3.0% increase. This figure came in hotter than the expectation of 3.1%.
- Australia’s hotter-than-expected Q3 inflation and August CPI data reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). RBA Governor Bullock noted that the labor market remains somewhat tight, despite the unexpected rise in the unemployment rate.
Australian Dollar hovers around 0.6550 near nine-day EMA support
The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6550 on Friday. Technical analysis of a daily chart suggests a neutral bias as the pair moves within a rectangle pattern. The pair is positioned above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating that both short-term price momentum is stronger.
On the upside, the initial barrier lies at the psychological level of 0.6600, followed by the rectangle’s upper boundary around 0.6630. Further advances above the rectangle would cause the emergence of the bullish bias and support the AUD/USD pair to explore the region around the 12-month high of 0.6707, which was recorded on September 17.
The primary support lies at the nine-day EMA of 0.6544. A break below this level would weaken the short- and medium-term price momentum and prompt the AUD/USD pair to navigate the region around the lower boundary of the rectangle around 0.6450, followed by the four-month low of 0.6414.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.04% | 0.00% | -0.09% | 0.05% | 0.22% | 0.30% | -0.02% | |
| EUR | 0.04% | 0.04% | -0.05% | 0.09% | 0.27% | 0.35% | 0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.00% | -0.04% | -0.12% | 0.06% | 0.23% | 0.30% | -0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.09% | 0.05% | 0.12% | 0.16% | 0.35% | 0.41% | 0.09% | |
| CAD | -0.05% | -0.09% | -0.06% | -0.16% | 0.16% | 0.25% | -0.06% | |
| AUD | -0.22% | -0.27% | -0.23% | -0.35% | -0.16% | 0.07% | -0.24% | |
| NZD | -0.30% | -0.35% | -0.30% | -0.41% | -0.25% | -0.07% | -0.33% | |
| CHF | 0.02% | -0.03% | 0.02% | -0.09% | 0.06% | 0.24% | 0.33% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Australian Dollar FAQs
What key factors drive the Australian Dollar?
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar?
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar?
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar?
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar?
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.