By Areena Fx- Currencies & metals rally on Friday.
- And the overnight markets have Gold & Silver soaring!
Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! What a weekend for yours truly… I got my infusion Thursday, and I woke up Friday morning, not sick.. YAHOO! I’m thankful for all of you who sent me a note, telling me the infusion would be OK, and those that said a prayer for that outcome… I truly believe in the power of prayer… I’m just saying… This will be an extra-long Pfennig today, as I started writing it this weekend, and found I had a lot to talk about! My beloved Cardinals finished their regular season yesterday, with the final game of the year for them VS the Cubs… a long season is ahead for The Cardinals, for sure! The great Al Stewart greets me this morning with his song: Time Passages…
The dollar really booked some gains on Wednesday and Thursday last week, with the BBDXY rising from 1,1996 on Wednesday morning to 1,208 on Thursday evening. But, the dollar returned to the underlying weak trend on Friday when the PCE data print showed that inflation had risen in August to 2.7% (really? They expect us to believe that inflation is only 2.7%?) And that brought the 2 more rate cuts scenario back and put them directly on the burner… The BBDXY ended the week on Friday at 1,204…
I didn’t get why the dollar bugs were buying dollars on Wednesday and Thursday, for they pointed to some words by the el jefe, Jay Powell, who said some things about how the markets had gotten ahead of themselves with their rate cuts thoughts… I mean, he was just trying to calm down the markets, but the market participants, being what they are, didn’t take it that way, and bought dollars, thinking that he said that there would be no more rate cuts… He didn’t say that! And that’s why I just didn’t get why the dollar bugs were buying dollars…
Gold saw major short paper trading on Wednesday and Thursday… I won’t go into their selling, I’ll just tell you that Gold climbed back on the rally horse, on Friday, after the PCE data print, and would have closed much higher than it did, if not for the SPTs showing up late in the afternoon… Gold ended the week up $ 10 and closing the week at $3,758. Silver, was another story… While Gold was getting axed by the SPTs, Silver was enjoying a turn on Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride and gained 88-cents on Thursday! And closed the day above $45!! Silver closed the week well above the. The Actual close at week’s end for Silver was $45.99.
Can you believe how quickly Silver is climbing to $50? It’s like it’s attached to a moon rocket! To Infinity & Beyond (Buzz Lightyear)
On a sidebar here… the last time Silver touched at $50, a writer from Forbes called me and asked me what was going on with Silver… I gave her a long dissertation on why Silver was rising, and that it was the regular guy’s Gold… And the interview ended up being on the front cover of the magazine, with the quote: “Silver, the new Gold”… or something like that… Silver soon went to $50 and then it wasn’t $50 any longer… The powers that be took it down quickly.. It’s been since April 2011 that Silver has last gotten to $50… So, strap yourself in, keep all arms and legs inside and get ready for the ride of your life!
The thing that really frustrates me is that Gold was up over $30 during the day, and Silver was up over $1.28… Here’s Ed Steer’s take on this… “It was another day where gold was the underperformer. But in the case of all four of the precious metals, the collusive commercial shorts stepped in to the limit the gains in everything — and even had the audacity to close silver a penny below $46 spot.”
The price of Oil really jumped higher last week, and ended the week trading with a $66 handle… I couldn’t find anything out there on the newswires regarding Oil, so I’ll put it down as a supply concern… The 10-year Treasury continued to get sold, and see its yield rise as it ended the week with a 4.18% yield…
And Copper was soaring in price late last week, until it wasn’t any longer… But still it ended the week at $4.76… here’s the skinny on what’s going on in Copper from Bloomberg.com “Freeport-McMoRan Inc. declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia after a massive mud flow killed two employees and left five missing.
The declaration may cause Freeport to not meet supply contracts for the mine, and the company lowered its copper and gold production guidance for the quarter.
The incident has strained the global copper market, which is already experiencing supply disruptions and soaring demand due to the clean-energy transition and artificial intelligence boom.
Chuck again… I have a friend that is a big shot at a lighting company out East, and he’s always complaining about the price of Copper… I bet he’s having a cow right now… I’m just saying…
In the overnight markets last night… The underlying weak trend for the dollar came into play overnight. The BBDXY starts our day/ week at 1,203, and all the talk on the newswires is that there is a chance of a Government Shutdown… And that talk has Gold at a new record high this morning, as the problems within the U.S. multiply, and Gold is up $65 to start our day today… Silver is also moving higher this morning. Silver is up 96-cents to start our day/ week today… Gold is $3,825, and Silver is $47.08… This is quite the morning for the metals, and I have a feeling that the SPTs will be out to manage the prices of the metals this morning… I hope not, but the wolf is always at the door…
The price of Oil remained trading with a $65 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury is holding steady trading with a 4.18% yield.
A Government Shutdown? Really? Haven’t we already come to 80-something events like this in our past, and every time, an 11th hour deal is made to kick the debt can down the road again and let the future lawmakers deal with it? Yes, we have, and this time will be no different, in my mind… But the show must go on, right? The drama and intrigue will come to a crescendo and then we’ll just pick up the pieces and go on with life… But if this is what takes to get Gold to new all-time record levels, then so be it!
The Bank of Mexico cut their internal rate 25 Basis Points to 7.5% this is the lowest rate for Mexico since 2022… And they were being copycats, for they cut rates while inflation is still a problem in Mexico… The bank also indicated this rate cut would most likely see more coming… The peso didn’t respond to the rate cut, which was strange…
The currencies have been through the gauntlet of a strong dollar, weak dollar, strong dollar, and all the shenanigans that goes with that trading… I guess I’m about the only person out there that writes, that thinks the currencies are still a play… I still believe that to properly diversify your investment portfolio you have to have a portion of the portfolio outside of your home currency…
The in the U.S. it’s the dollar, in Europe it’s the euro, and so on… along with a portion of your investment portfolio, in Gold & Silver, then you have a reduced risk investment portfolio…
But these days, it’s all about the stock jockeys… I read this weekend that U.S. investors now own more stocks than ever before… To me, that’s risky! But then I’m so conservative with investments that I can only see this scenario collapsing like the dot come scenario collapsed, or all of the economic collapses I the history of the world… John Law comes to mind, the tulip collapse, and others that I’ve read about and studied through the years… I’m just saying… diversify your investment portfolio before it’s too late!
There was an awful auction of the 7-year treasury last week… Here’s the skinny on the auction: The bid to cover was just 2.395, a big drop from 2.489 in August and the lowest since March 2023.
But it was the internals that were especially bad: Indirects, aka foreign buyers, plunged from 77.5% to 56.4%, the biggest monthly drop in 4 years. Worse, this was the lowest foreign demand since March 2021, when as veteran bond traders will recall, the US had a near-failed 7Y auction.
I’m worried about the debt financing folks… And eventually this will spill over to the dollar trading, which I’m also concerned with, as it will put additional pressure on the dollar, and propel it in the weak dollar trend… Just a reminder that the U.S. sells Treasuries to finance its debt… Can you see why I’m worried?
Circling the wagons back to Gold this morning… This from Bloomberg.com “Bullion doesn’t look overpriced relative to the dollar and Treasuries, which “ought to contain a level of Fed-related premium, given the nature of the risk” from the central bank’s potential loss of independence, Barclays Plc. strategists including Themistoklis Fiotakis and Lefteris Farmakis said in a note on Sunday. “This makes it a surprisingly good value hedge.”
Chuck again… I liked that they thought that Gold was not overpriced relative to the dollar and treasuries! That’s something that I think investors should take hold of and run with it! Why on earth would you not?
I’m reading a message this morning, that talks about how a good number of people in the U.S. can’t afford to buy physical Gold… But they can have the latest iPhone, the biggest TV screen, the newest car, whatever… C’mon think about that, investment options that don’t involve stocks and bonds… Now, that’s novel if you ask me!
The U.S. Data Cupboard last week had the 3rd revision to 2nd QTR GDP… And once again, I feel that I need to explain that GDP in the U.S. is NOT that strong (3.3%). Because the number is skewed by Gov’t spending…
Bill Bonner had this in his Wednesday letter last week: “But there is no evidence of such growth anywhere in the economic record. Just the opposite. The Fed never, ever had rates as low as they were in the 2008-2023 period. And yet, growth rates declined from the 3 and 4 percents of the 1990s to the 1 and 2 percents of the 2008-2025 period.”
Chuck again… In addition, last week, Personal Income and Spending for Aug printed, and Spending was really strong as the back-to-school sales helped. We also saw that the Fed/Cabal/Cartel’s favorite flavor of inflation calculation printed for Aug, and it showed inflation rising at a 2.7% clip, up from July’ 2.5% clip… And that was the reason the dollar saw some selling on Friday, as I described above.
This week’s Data Cupboard will come to a crescendo on Friday when the Jobs Jamboree takes place for Sept. It will be interesting to see the new BLS head honcho’s flavor of hedonic adjustments, and what will the number be?
To recap… The dollar went on a brief rally on Wednesday and Thursday of last week, but returned to the underlying weak dollar trend on Friday, after PCE showed that inflation rose in Aug, and that put the rate cuts back on the burner…
For What It’s Worth… Well, as long as inflation is the topic on everyone’s mind, I’ll continue to give you data that confirms that there should have been a rate hike instead of a rate cut…
Here’s your snippet: “About half of all Americans say the cost of groceries is a major source of stress in their life and the latest inflation data shows that pressure isn’t easing.
Grocery prices rose 0.6 percent from July to August, the steepest one-month gain in roughly three years, according to the Consumer Price Index. They’re now 2.7 percent higher than a year ago and up nearly 30 percent from before the pandemic.
Grocery inflation has cooled considerably since the summer of 2022, when it peaked above 13 percent year-over-year, but President Trump’s tariffs and tighter immigration rules are clouding the outlook.
So far, Trump’s trade policies haven’t pushed up consumer prices as much as many economists feared, but some items including coffee are starting to feel the grind.
Coffee prices surged 3.6 percent in August, the biggest monthly jump since 2011, leaving them 20.9% higher than a year ago. Recent droughts in Brazil and Vietnam explain part of the increase, but the latest spike comes on the heels of Trump’s 50 percent tariff on Brazil, the world’s largest coffee exporter.
The U.S. is also highly reliant on imports — and immigrant labor — for its fresh fruits and vegetables. Tomato prices rose 4.5 percent last month, lettuce 3.5 percent and bananas 2.1 percent, the CPI shows. Overall, fresh vegetable prices climbed 3 percent in August, the largest monthly increase since 2020.
Limited cattle supply has continued to put upward pressure on beef prices, which are at record highs. Meanwhile, egg prices — though down roughly 40 percent from their March peak — remain up from a year ago amid lingering bird flu disruptions.
Coffee
Price Increase: +20.9 percent from August 2024 to August 2025
Average Price: $8.87 per pound in August 2025 (Coffee, 100%, ground roast)”
Chuck again… And the propeller heads tell us that inflation is only 2.7%? I’m so disgusted with the Gov’t for their reporting and telling us lies… I’m just saying…
Market Prices 9/29/2025: American Style: A$ .6561, kiwi .5787, C$ .7177, euro 1.1713, sterling 1.3429, Swiss $ 1.2528, European Style: rand 17.2932, krone 9.9731, SEK 9.4206, forint 334.16, zloty 3.3416, koruna 20.7749, RUB 82.92, yen 148.78, sing 1.2910, HKD 7.7813, INR 88.76, China 7.1216, peso 18.36, BRL 5.3440, BBDXY 1,203, Dollar Index 98.04, Oil $65.28, 10—year 4.18%, Silver $47.08, Platinum $1,603.00, Palladium $1,304.00, Copper $4.81, and Gold… $3,825
That’s it for today, and more than I usually have, but that’s OK, because I didn’t write on Thursday last week… So far, so good, with me, with regard to the last infusion… I’m feeling like I did the previous infusions before the one in August that sent me for a trip to sicks Ville… I now wonder what was in that infusion. Not the normal stuff for sure! I’m now off the steroids, and can get back to normal sleep patterns and eating… I didn’t gain a lot of weight on the drugs, which was a concerted effort by me to not gain, although my eating did increase a lot! My beloved Mizzou Tigers will be put to the test when they next play, with a game against Big Bad Alabama… The Ozark Mountain Daredevils take us to the finish line today with their song: Jackie Blue… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!